“Funded-capitalized pension designs and the demand for minimum pension guarantee

Abstract

Using funded and unfunded pillars, the optimal pension structure is estimated using an over-lapping generation model, calibrated to the average OECD countries. While simulating different pillar sizes, a socio-economic characteristic was revealed in which low-earning groups are prone to unexpected market risks than high-earning cohorts and support a larger contribution than better-off individuals. This led to high contribution rates for funded pillars and low contributions rates for social security pillars. This suboptimal allocation leads to inefficient hedging capability for the pension portfolio. An alternative is a minimum pension guarantee as an efficient system stabilizer as it rebalances the economic cost among different earning cohorts. However, the guarantee might be expensive to implement if not capitalized early in the working phases in an era of aging populations, low birth rates, and deep financial crisis.