Predicting Optimal Sites for Ecosystem Restoration and Assisted Migration of Abies pinsapo Boiss. Using Species Distribution Modelling

Abstract

Climate change exacerbates the vulnerability of relict forests. However, plant taxa may buffer extinction risk through range shifts that track suitable habitats or through adjustments in their ecological niches, either via phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary adaptation to prevailing environmental regimes. In addition to these biological responses, the risks associated with climate change can also be mitigated through forest management practices and conservation strategies, including assisted migration. We used presence–absence data from Abies pinsapo Boiss. and environmental variables to describe the past and current natural distribution of the species by using species distribution models (SDMs). Then, we characterized future patterns of habitat suitability and identified potential areas for ecosystem restoration and assisted migration. The models predict a 77% loss of suitable habitat by 2060 and up to 99% by 2100 yet highlight climatically suitable areas outside the species’ current range—particularly in the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park and Sierras de Cazorla, Segura y Las Villas Natural Park. These results provide spatially explicit guidance for restoration and assisted migration strategies. Our findings demonstrate the need for proactive conservation planning and show that SDMs can help identify climate refugia for long-term species persistence.