Variations in cereal crop phenology in Spain over the last twenty-six years (1986–2012)
Autor
Oteros, José
García-Mozo, H.
Botey, Roser
Mestre, Antonio
Galán, Carmen
Editor
SpringerFecha
2015Materia
PhenologyCrop
Cereal
Generalize Linear Mixed Model
Onset Date
Sowing Date
Rainfall Trend
Phenological Event
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Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in
temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant
phenology is modulated by climate, and closely governed by water availability and air
temperature. Over the period 1986–2012, the effects of climate change on phenology
were analyzed in five crops at 26 sites growing in Spain (southern Europe): oats, wheat,
rye, barley and maize. The phenophases studied were: sowing date, emergence, flag leaf
sheath swollen, flowering, seed ripening and harvest. Trends in phenological response
over time were detected using linear regression. Trends in air temperature and rainfall
over the period prior to each phenophase were also charted. Correlations between
phenological features, biogeographical area and weather trends were examined using a
Generalized Lineal Mixed Model approach. A generalized advance in most winter-cereal
phenophases was observed, mainly during the spring. Trend patterns differed between
species and phenophases. The most noticeable advance in spring phenology was recorded
for wheat and oats, the “Flag leaf sheath swollen” and “Flowering date” phenophases
being brought forward by around 3 days/year and 1 day/year, respectively. Temperature
changes during the period prior to phenophase onset were identified as the cause of these
phenological trends. Climate changes are clearly prompting variations in cereal crop
phenology; their consequences could be even more marked if climate change persists
into the next century. Changes in phenology could in turn impact crop yield; fortunately,
human intervention in crop systems is likely to minimize the negative impact.