Changes in the liver transplant waiting list after expanding to the ‘Up-to-Seven’ criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

We aimed to assess changes in the composition of the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT) after expanding from Milan to “up-to-seven” criteria in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A consecutive cohort of 255 LT candidates was stratified in a pre-expansion era (2016–2018; n = 149) and a post-expansion era (2019–2021; n = 106). The most frequent indication for LT was HCC in both groups (47.7% vs. 43.4%; p = 0.5). The proportion of patients exceeding the Milan criteria in the explanted liver was nearly doubled after expansion (12.5% vs. 21.1%; p = 0.25). Expanding criteria had no effect in drop-out (12.3% vs. 20.4%; p = 0.23) or microvascular invasion rates (37.8% vs. 38.7%; p = 0.93). The length on the waiting list did not increase after the expansion (172 days [IQR 74–282] vs. 118 days [IQR 67–251]; p = 0.135) and was even shortened in the post-expansion HCC subcohort (181 days [IQR 125–232] vs. 116 days [IQR 74–224]; p = 0.04). Tumor recurrence rates were reduced in the post-expansion cohort (15.4% vs. 0%; p = 0.012). In conclusion, expanding from Milan to up-to-seven criteria for LT in patients with HCC had no meaningful impact on the waiting list length and composition, thus offering the opportunity for the adoption of more liberal policies in the future.