Modelling olive phenological response to weather and topography

Abstract

A detailed analysis was made of the response of olive floral phenology to climate and topography insouthern Spain. Field phenological, topographical and meteorological data collected at 12 sampling sitesin the province of Córdoba over a 17-year period (1996–2012) were statistically analyzed and used tomodel local olive phenological behaviour.The study sought to determine: (1) the optimal frequency of phenological sampling during the repro-ductive period; (2) the major topographical parameters governing local olive reproductive phenology;and (3) the most influential meteorological variables. Findings for the Sign test indicated that weeklysampling yielded accurate results. Correlation and multiple linear regression analysis revealed that alti-tude and percentage eastward slope were the most influential topographical factors; a positive correlationwas detected between delays in phenophases onset and increased altitude and eastward orientation.Correlation and partial least square regression analysis identified air temperature, rainfall, crop evapo-transpiration and solar radiation as the major weather factors influencing local olive phenology.