Better prediction of Mediterranean olive production using pollen-based models
Autor
Oteros, José
Orlandi, Fabio
García-Mozo, H.
Aguilera, Fátima
Ben Dhiab, Ali
Bonofiglio, Tommaso
Abichou, Mounir
Ruiz Valenzuela, Luis
Trigo, M. Mar del
Díaz de la Guardia, C.
Domínguez Vílches, Eugenio
Msallem, Monji
Fornaciari, Marco
Galán, Carmen
Editor
SpringerFecha
2013Materia
Olea europaeaCrop
Pollen
Aerobiology
Crop forecasting
Mediterranean
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Olive oil is a major economic resource of the Mediterranean
region. Olive crop management can be improved
by models that forecast the variable reproductive biology of
olive tree. However, the processes controlling olive harvest
are complex on large scales. Here, we study the parameters
that influence olive fruit production for developing accurate
forecasting models. Seventeen aerobiological sampling points
have monitored olive pollen grains in Spain, Italy and Tunisia
from 1993 to 2012. Six crop models have been developed at
two provinces and country scales. The modelling has been
done in two steps: (1) typification and (2) modelling by partial
least square regression. Results show that higher pollen indexes
and water availability during spring are related to an
increase of final fruit production in all the studied area. Higher
pollen indexes are also positively correlated with air temperature
during early spring and autumn. Furthermore, a decrease
of fruit production is related with increasing air temperature
during winter and summer. To conclude, we have designed
accurate models that allow accurate predictions of olive
production.