Effects of future climate change on birch abundance and their pollen load
Autor
Rojo, Jesús
Oteros, José
Picornell, Antonio
Maya-Manzano, José María
Damialis, Athanasios
Zink, Katrin
Werchan, Matthias
Werchan, Barbora
Smith, Matt
Menzel, Annette
Timpf, Sabine
Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia
Bergmann, Karl C.
Schmidt-Weber, Carsten
Buters, Jeroen
Editor
WileyFecha
2021Materia
BetulaClimate change
Ecological modelling
Plant distribution
Pollen exposure
Pollen production
Temperate trees
METS:
Mostrar el registro METSPREMIS:
Mostrar el registro PREMISMetadatos
Mostrar el registro completo del ítemResumen
Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public
health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources
of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate
change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts.
This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations
in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study.
Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time
series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch
pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance
and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate
change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease
in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly
in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result
in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount
of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude
areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates,
increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have
already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution
and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen
production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future.
The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario.